Interest Rate Projections for Fall 2023

The Financial Post had an interview with a market strategist that discussed projections for the Bank of Canada (BOC) interest rate moves for the fall of 2023. See Bank of Canada to take wait-and-see Approach below.

It is possible that the BOC is at, or very near, the peak of it's interest rate tightening cycle. If so, this will offer more clarity to participants in the residential real estate market. That is because Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley buyers and sellers might have a better sense of where mortgage rates will have maxed out and possibly plateaued. In fact, looking out into 2024, it may even be possible for the central bank to begin modestly cutting rates.

Projecting the path of interest rates is purely speculation, however. My point is simply that Metro Vancouver area homebuyers will have a better sense of what level or range of mortgage rates may be the "new normal" to expect. This greatly helps with projecting affordability thresholds and budgeting for home ownership. Static or slightly lower mortgage rates, in the short to medium term, will be easier for people to adjust to than the rapid increases we've experienced over the past eighteen months or so.

Overall, I think this should provide some equilibrium to home prices and sales levels, once the housing market adjusts to a new mortgage rate landscape, that is more stable.

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